EFEKTIVITAS JALUR KREDIT DALAM MEKANISME TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA
Devanto Shasta Pratomo
Magister Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya Malang
Jl. MT. Hariyono No.165 Malang, 65145.
Regina Mayo: Telp. +62 341 551 611; Fax. +62 341 565 420
Transmission mechanism of monetary policy had an important influence in determining the final target of monetary policy and also affected the business and economic activity with several channels namely interest rate, asset price channel, credit channel, exchange rate channel and expectations channel. The function of channel was as an intermediary of monetary policy that should be able to be influential for a long time, as well as to anticipate the imperfect information and the possibility of adverse selection and misappropriation. It was known as credit channel. The purpose of this research was to explain which sector credit that contributed greatly to inflation. To analyze data, this research used VECM with two indicators namely impulse response function and variance decomposition to determine which sector credit was effective to explain inflation. The results showed several findings. Investment credit of trade, hotel and restaurant sector and working capital credit of mining and quarrying sector was effectively explaining inflation. The conclusion of this research was investment credit of trade, hotel and restaurant sector and working capital credit of mining and quarrying sector gave great contribution to inflation
Key words: BI rate, credit, gross domestik product, inflation
PERGERAKAN HARGA SAHAM AKIBAT PERUBAHAN NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, TINGKAT BUNGA, DAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Shinta Heru Satoto
Jurusan Manajemen Fakultas Ekonomi UPN “Veteran” Yogyakarta
Jl. SWK 104 Ring Road Utara, Condong Catur, Yogyakarta, 55283.
Korespondensi dengan Penulis:
Shinta Heru Satoto: Telp. +62 274 486377; Fax. +62 274 486 255
The purposes of this study were to provide an empirical evidence of the influence of macroeconomic variables and the time varying volatility phenomena on stock price. This research used manufactured firms that list on Indonesian Capital Market on 2009 until 2011 periods for the sampel. This research also used several macroeconomics variables such as exchange rate, inflation, BI rate, and Gross Domestic Product. The empirical result showed that exchange rate, BI rate, and Gross Domestic Product influenced stock price. The result also showed that time varying volatility was happenend on stock price fluctuation. This result indicated that Indonesian stock price have high volatility on 2009 til 2011 periods
Keywords: BI rate, exchange rate, gross domestic product, inflation, time varying volatiliy
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DAMPAK BI RATE, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, NILAI TUKAR, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI OBLIGASI PEMERINTAH
Jurusan Manajeman Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Malikussaleh
Kampus Bukit Indah, Jl.Sumatera No.1-2 Blang Pulo, Lhokseumawe, Aceh, 23111.
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Banda Aceh
Jl. Teuku Umar No.163-169, Banda Aceh, 23243.
Korespondensi dengan Penulis:
Ichsan: Telp: +62 645 40210; Fax:+62 645 40211
The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of BI rate, SBI interest rate, inflation and the exchange rate to value of government bonds in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Data used in this study were secondary data in BI rate, SBI interest rates, inflation and the exchange rate period January 2007 to October 2012. The methods of data analysis were multiple regression models and they were analyzed using IBM SPSS software version 20. The results showed that partially only the exchange rate that did not significantly influence the value of government bonds. This finding could be explained that the exchange rate had no effect related to central bank intervention (Bank Indonesia) to move the exchange rate at the time of depreciation or appreciation.
Key words: BI rate, bonds, exchange rate, inflation, SBI interest rates